Global Risk Monitor

US diesel broke 6 dollars a gallon nationally for the first time on record on September 11, with 28 states posting all time highs the same day; Canada's 50% retaliatory tariff on US steel and aluminum, plus roughly 700 other products, took effect September 8, and Section 232 tariff exemptions for Canadian goods are set to lift September 15; LME copper set a fresh record near 14,858.5 dollars a tonne on September 10 on tariff expectations and tight supply outside the US

Cape of Good Hope routing is reinforced, not relieved, after Houthi forces seized Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline and Bab al Mandeb over the weekend of September 11 to 12; Egypt has lost an estimated 7 billion dollars, roughly 60% of Suez Canal revenue, since the Red Sea crisis began; Drewry's Shanghai to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Genoa lanes pulled back further this week even as the composite WCI held stable at 4,476 dollars

Manila's port congestion eased to a medium 1.37 day median wait for September 6 to 12, down 14% from 1.6 days the prior week; PAGASA is tracking a low pressure area outside PAR with a high chance of becoming a tropical depression, while the southwest monsoon continues to weaken; the Philippines' 12.5% forced labor tariff remains unchanged, with the review to cut it to 10% still pending

Both Gulf exits are now under hostile control at once. Houthi forces seized Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline and Bab al Mandeb over the weekend of September 11 to 12, and Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline was shut after Iraqi drone strikes; Iran's Foreign Minister said on September 13 that reopening Hormuz depends on a US return to the Islamabad Memorandum, not the smaller Oman brokered route; Brent crude closed above 100 dollars a barrel for the first time since mid May

Global anchorage congestion stood at 4.04 million TEU as of September 11, 11.7% of the total cellular container fleet, with North Asia accounting for 43% of anchored tonnage and Shanghai berthing delays running 7 to 8 days; Drewry's Transpacific lanes rose again on September 10 data while the Baltic Dry Index eased to 3,507 from its five year high

No material change to India's Section 301 forced labor tariff this week; the broader 16 economy overcapacity investigation naming India remains undetermined as of the most recent tracker update; India is among the nations maintaining a coordinated transit arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz even as Bab al Mandeb adds a fresh regional shipping risk

The Panama Canal Authority's cut to 32 daily transits took effect September 15 as scheduled, Panamax slots down from 25 to 23; forecasters now put greater than 90% probability on the El Nino pattern intensifying through the December 2026 to April 2027 dry season; USMCA's fourth review round remains expected in Washington DC in September, with no specific date yet confirmed, unchanged from last week

The Houthi seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coastline and Bab al Mandeb over the weekend of September 11 to 12 sits directly off the Horn of Africa, with more than 2,000 people fleeing to Djibouti within 24 hours; Egypt has lost an estimated 7 billion dollars, roughly 60% of Suez Canal revenue, since the Red Sea crisis began; Brent crude above 100 dollars a barrel adds fresh cost pressure to landed energy and fertilizer import models

Both Gulf exits fell under hostile control at once this week: the Houthis seized Bab al Mandeb and Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline shut down, while Iran tied Hormuz's reopening to a memorandum the US has not returned to; Brent cleared 100 dollars and US diesel broke 6 dollars a gallon for the first time on record; the Panama Canal's cut to 32 transits took effect on schedule; 4.04 million TEU sat at anchor worldwide even as the Baltic Dry Index eased from its five year high and Manila's port wait improved