BDI 3,507 • Transpacific FEU $7,352 • WCI $4,476 • Crude $105.82 • Houthis seize Bab al Mandeb as Saudi pipeline shuts down • Iran ties Hormuz reopening to return to Islamabad pact • US diesel breaks $6 a gallon for first time on record • Panama Canal cuts to 32 transits as El Nino intensifies • 4.04M TEU at anchor as Shanghai delays hit 7 to 8 daysBDI 3,507 • Transpacific FEU $7,352 • WCI $4,476 • Crude $105.82 • Houthis seize Bab al Mandeb as Saudi pipeline shuts down • Iran ties Hormuz reopening to return to Islamabad pact • US diesel breaks $6 a gallon for first time on record • Panama Canal cuts to 32 transits as El Nino intensifies • 4.04M TEU at anchor as Shanghai delays hit 7 to 8 days
🇵🇭 Philippines Risk Watch
Supply chain intelligence focused on Philippine import, port, and sourcing exposure
ℹ
Risk scores are based on public index signals and carrier advisories, reviewed by Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience. Updated weekly. Not intended for company-specific procurement, sourcing, or operational decisions.
PH PULSE SCORE71/100HIGH RISK
Updated September 14, 2026 · Next update September 21, 2026 Editorially reviewed weekly
Philippines risk is scored from the ASEAN region signal, reviewed weekly alongside global and regional data.
Philippine Port Status
Manila Avg. Vessel Wait
1.37 days
Off-Window Delay
Data pending — not published
Freight Signal
▼ Manila median wait improves to 1.37 days, Medium congestion (Portcast, data September 6 to 12, updated September 13)
◈ TYPHOON SEASON & PORT STATUS
Manila's port congestion eased to a medium 1.37 day median wait for September 6 to 12, down 14% from 1.6 days the prior week; PAGASA is tracking a low pressure area outside PAR with a high chance of becoming a tropical depression, while the southwest monsoon continues to weaken; the Philippines' 12.5% forced labor tariff remains unchanged, with the review to cut it to 10% still pending
Signals Affecting Philippine Supply Chains this Week
Filtered from this week's top signals for ASEAN and global relevance · reviewed by Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience
⚔️ GeopoliticalCriticalNEW2026-09-14
Houthis Seize Bab al Mandeb as Saudi East West Pipeline Shuts Down
Houthi forces completed a takeover of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline over the weekend of September 11 to 12, 2026, capturing the port city of Mocha, the town of Dhubab, and Mayyun Island, known as Perim, and expelling Saudi backed forces from six districts covering 5,400 square kilometers, according to Al Jazeera reporting published September 11 and September 13. The group now controls the Bab al Mandeb Strait, which carries roughly 12% of global trade, 11% of maritime oil, and 8% of liquefied natural gas. Separately, Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, the kingdom's primary route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was shut down after drone strikes from Iraq, with satellite imagery showing a 60 mile smoke plume along the route, according to NBC News reporting published September 11. Red Sea shipping volume had already fallen 50 to 55% between 2023 and 2025, and Egypt has lost an estimated 7 billion dollars, roughly 60% of Suez Canal revenue, since the crisis began.
⚔️ GeopoliticalCriticalNEW2026-09-14
Iran Ties Hormuz Reopening to Islamabad Memorandum as Brent Clears 100 Dollars
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on September 13, 2026 that the United States must return to its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum before Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, according to Shafaqna reporting. Araghchi set out seven conditions including sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and withdrawal of US military bases from the region. He clarified that the maritime route Iran agreed with Oman is a separate, restricted corridor running through Iranian territorial waters, not a general reopening of the Strait, and said Iran would brief Iraq and five Gulf states on its details at a ministerial meeting in Muscat on Monday, September 15. That meeting is already fractured: Bahrain is boycotting and the UAE has downgraded its delegation. Marine analytics tracked 11 vessel crossings on the most recently reported day, against roughly 130 a day before the war.
🏭 ManufacturingCriticalNEW2026-09-14
US Diesel Breaks 6 Dollars a Gallon for the First Time on Record
The AAA national average for diesel reached 6.0556 dollars a gallon on September 11, 2026, up 2.35 dollars, or 63%, from 3.7053 dollars a year earlier, according to Rigzone reporting citing GasBuddy. Twenty eight states posted all time high diesel prices the same day, including Texas, California, Georgia, and North Carolina, and five California fuel stations displayed 9.999 dollars a gallon, the maximum their pump systems allow, according to 24/7 Wall St reporting. Analysts attributed the surge to four concurrent supply shocks: disruption to Hormuz and now Bab al Mandeb shipping, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, Moscow's diesel export ban, and Beijing's tightened fuel export quotas.
🚢 FreightHighNEW2026-09-14
Drewry WCI Holds at 4,476 Dollars While 4.04 Million TEU Sit at Anchor
Drewry's World Container Index composite held stable at 4,476 dollars per 40 foot container for a second consecutive week on data as of September 10, 2026, according to The DCN. Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to 7,352 dollars and Shanghai to New York rose 1% to 9,726 dollars, while Shanghai to Genoa fell 3% to 4,216 dollars and Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 2% to 3,997 dollars. Underneath that stability, global anchorage congestion stood at 4.04 million TEU, 11.7% of the total cellular container fleet, as of September 11, 2026, with North Asia accounting for 43% of all anchored tonnage, according to SEKO Logistics. Shanghai berthing delays ran 7 to 8 days across several terminals, and the Baltic Dry Index eased to 3,507 on September 11 from its 3,628 five year high on September 4, according to TradingEconomics.
🌿 ClimateHighNEW2026-09-14
Panama Canal Cut to 32 Daily Transits Takes Effect as El Nino Strengthens
The Panama Canal Authority's reduction to 32 total daily transits took effect September 15, 2026 as scheduled, with Panamax lock slots falling from 25 to 23 and Neopanamax slots holding at 9, according to Industrial Info Resources reporting published September 11. Rainfall across the canal watershed from May through August ran 34% below the historical average, with inflows down 44%. Roughly 3.2 million barrels a day of crude, condensate, and petroleum products transited the canal in the second quarter of 2026. Forecasters now put greater than 90% probability on the El Nino pattern intensifying through the December 2026 to April 2027 dry season, with a 75% chance conditions could exceed the previous modern record strength; historically, 79% of the 14 lowest water events since 1965 have coincided with El Nino conditions in the preceding year.
🚢 FreightMediumNEW2026-09-14
Manila Wait Eases to 1.37 Days as PAGASA Tracks New System Outside PAR
Manila's port congestion eased this week: Portcast's tracker shows a median vessel wait of 1.37 days for September 6 to 12, 2026, down 14% from 1.6 days the prior week, still within the medium congestion band, with the tracker last updated September 13. Separately, PAGASA was monitoring a low pressure area positioned 3,185 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas at 8am on September 14, 2026, outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, with a high chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours, according to Abante reporting. The southwest monsoon has been weakening through the week. The Philippines' request to lower its 12.5% Section 301 forced labor tariff to 10% remains pending, with no announced USTR movement since a Palace statement on August 6, 2026, and the country continues to sit outside USTR's separate 16 economy Section 301 overcapacity investigation, which remained undetermined as of the most recent tracker update on September 10, 2026.
Current Tariff Exposure
Measure
Rate / Status
Note
Source
USTR Section 301 Forced Labor Tariff
12.5%
Philippines confirmed at the 12.5% rate in USTR's 60-economy forced labor determination, effective July 24, 2026. Manila established import-control procedures via a Joint Administrative Order on July 23 and continues pressing USTR to cut the rate to 10%; the lobbying effort remains pending, with no USTR movement since a Palace statement on August 6, 2026, the most recent confirmed status.
Section 122 expired on schedule July 23, 2026, and was replaced in the same instant by the new Section 301 forced labor tariffs above, with no gap in coverage. No change this week.
Baker McKenzie Global Import Blog — July 24, 2026
USTR Section 301 Overcapacity Investigation
Not applicable to PH
USTR's March 11, 2026 notice initiating this separate structural excess capacity investigation names 16 economies, including neighboring Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia, but not the Philippines. No change to that scope has been announced through September 14, 2026; the investigation remained undetermined as of the most recent tracker update on September 10, and the statutory determination window has been confirmed to run as late as March 2027.
The Commerce Department's proposal to add 14 more derivative products, mostly at a 25% rate, to the existing Section 232 steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs closed its public comment period on August 27, 2026, with no determination announced as of September 14, 2026. Relevant to any Philippine exporters of covered derivative articles; the underlying Section 232 metals tariffs are separate from, and additional to, the forced labor tariff above.
Tariff information is editorial analysis only, not legal or compliance advice.
HAROLD'S TAKE — WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 14, 2026
“Both ends of the Gulf are hostile now, not just one. The Houthis took Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline this weekend and control Bab al Mandeb, Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline is down, and Iran tied any Hormuz reopening to a memorandum the US walked away from months ago. Add a diesel price that broke six dollars a gallon for the first time on record and a Panama Canal cut that landed this week exactly as scheduled, and the Pulse Score moves to 96 from 93, the highest reading since this conflict began.”
— Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience · ChainPulse Intelligence